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The next decade opens a new frontier for European entrepreneurs.
For the past 80 years, Europe and the U.S. built a tightly integrated technoeconomic system. NATO provided the security umbrella, the US dollar provided the financial operating system, and Silicon Valley supplied the computational and software layers. Europe retained high-end industrial capabilities (aerospace, automotive, manufacturing) but largely ceded technology leadership to the US and, more recently, to China.
“We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” Mark Carney, Davos 2026
Europeans I’ve spoken to over the past days are recognizing that this rupture is structural, not transient. It’s time to move past outrage and start building the systems Europe needs to operate independently.
If the geopolitical rupture is the catalyst, AI is the accelerant. AI is collapsing the cost and time to build complex systems. Tasks that once required billion-dollar budgets and thousands of engineers can now be done by small teams. At the same time, European buyers are more open than at any point in the last 30 years to consider European vendors.
Founders should see this geopolitical shift as a slim opening to replace deeply entrenched incumbents but need to ultimately deliver competitive products. Buyers will look to gain sovereignty but the willingness to pay extra or make compromises on functionality will be low.
Identify customers willing to adopt European solutions quickly. Buyers in critical sectors now have both motive and mandate to diversify suppliers and build sovereignty. The market isn’t defined by ideology, it’s driven by risk, resilience, and redundancy. Key categories include:
These are not consumer apps. It’s sovereign infrastructure. The incumbents are deeply entrenched precisely because the systems create dependencies, which is what makes them so valuable.
There are two advantages founders should leverage that weren't available in the past.
First, the ability to build enterprise-grade software dramatically faster using AI-coding. This isn’t theoretical anymore: one engineer built a functional web browser over Christmas break and another generated CUDA kernels for GPU workloads. These kinds of projects used to require teams of specialists; now they’re becoming side projects.
Second, the AI platform shift gives challengers a real wedge. Moats and value capture will get reshuffled for the first time in years. AI-native companies can beat incumbents on functionality, not just price or patriotism.
Incumbents remain powerful because switching is expensive, not because they’re loved. Assume you’ll need to handle migrations and replace existing integrations. Early on this will require lots of handholding. Over time automation should drive down migration costs.
The deeper the moat, the harder it will be to displace incumbents. Think carefully about the lock-in effects and have clear solutions to address them. Talk to buyers early but don’t just take their word for it. Get actual commitments, pilots, budgets, timelines, and integration plans.
EU Inc. is (hopefully) coming and other initiatives would certainly help: a unified stock exchange, deeper capital markets, simplified pan-European regulatory regimes, and more institutional capital flowing into startups. But none of these are prerequisites for building large, durable companies. Europe has already produced world-class outcomes under suboptimal conditions. It will be in the hands of founders and buyers if they are able and willing to move toward European tech sovereignty.
It’s time to build.